August 20 Market Daily Report

Staying Strong During the Pullback - Seizing Opportunities in the Second Half of the Year

1. Core Market Conditions of the Day

- Ethereum has shown significant volatility, briefly falling below $4100 before rebounding. In the short term, it needs to hold above $4100 to meet expectations.
- The hourly level is still in a downtrend, with weak support at 4100 USD and strong support around 3600 USD. If the downtrend continues, 4000 USD may be breached; a rebound must stabilize above 4400 USD to break the retracement trend, with short-term bears in control.

2. Market Sentiment and Capital Dynamics

- The Ethereum staking withdrawal volume reached 900,000 coins (a peak since the transition to PoS), with investors experiencing panic over concerns of shrinking profits.
- Institutional and large holder behaviors diverge: BNMR purchased 370,000 coins in a week, SBET bought 140,000 coins, while US institutional investors continued to increase their holdings; Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw outflows for three consecutive days, influenced by the probability of a rate cut in September (currently 86%) and comments from Powell.

3. Opportunity Logic in the Second Half of the Year

- Long-term bullish on Ethereum: US stock market funds continue to enter, with strong institutional financing capabilities for BNMR, SBET, etc. Ethereum's market value is expected to join the ranks of high-tech companies in the second half of the year, with a target of 8000-10000 USD.
- Two major driving factors: The expectation of an interest rate cut in September (probability 80%+) will bring liquidity easing; the high probability of the approval of altcoin ETFs in the second half of the year may attract Wall Street funds, focusing on assets such as sui, doge, ltc, etc.
- Price-performance range: Below 4100 USD is a good recent range for trading, consistent with the previous support range of 4050-4150, and institutional holding costs are mostly between 3500-3700 USD.

4. Risks and Operational Tips

- Short-term risk events: Tonight's Federal Reserve monetary minutes and Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting may impact the market. During this period, avoid using high leverage.
- Trading advice: Strictly execute strategies for promising assets (such as Ethereum and altcoins with ETF expectations), without getting caught up in positions; altcoins can refer to Ethereum's support level for placing orders.