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 starts a rate-cutting cycle, the market often experiences a deep correction. Given the current market situation, I believe that the monetary policy meeting in September 2024 should be regarded as the first rate cut of substantial significance in this cycle — unlike the previous rate cuts since 2020, the importance of this meeting is entirely different. The rate cut in September 2024 did not trigger a correction. At that time, the market generally expected a sharp pullback, but I clearly pointed out that this rate cut did not have substantial impact, and this judgment was validated afterward.
From the perspective of market perception, such a shift in Federal Reserve policy is usually seen as a signal of a soft landing, which will be followed by market consolidation and stabilization — the Federal Reserve has indeed successfully achieved this goal. It has been proven that my prediction was completely correct; the claims that "the stock market and cryptocurrencies will inevitably plummet after the first rate cut" are purely nonsense. The real turning point in the market occurs after the first significant rate cut, when uncertainty begins to spread and there are severe divergences in market views. This is the fundamental reason why this rate cut is fundamentally different from previous ones, and it also explains why it will trigger a deep correction in the stock market and crypto assets.
Do not compare this round of cycles to historical cycles or emergency rate cuts - each rate cut is unique and needs to be analyzed based on its specific context. I firmly believe that this rate cut will be a key catalyst for triggering a market correction in September. The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is scheduled for September 17, (.
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