#美国终止政府关闭 First, let's talk about the current situation of Bitcoin. At the position of 96800, the weekend has become the ceiling. Yesterday morning, the price rebounded and touched this point before falling back. In fact, I mentioned this two days ago that the weekend high often becomes the starting and falling area for the beginning of next week. If there is no news to stimulate the market, this pattern is generally reliable.

I personally tried a short position around 96600 on Friday night, and I closed it when it rebounded from 94000 to 95000 during yesterday's morning session. Later, the price climbed back to the 96300-96600 range, and I took another short position, which I also closed in the evening. What this market is telling you now is that it's difficult to break through 97000 over the weekend.
The first hurdle for the rebound is still 96800-97250. There is a 12-hour ema7 moving average at 97250, and the price tends to reverse easily when it touches this position.
Next Monday, the U.S. government shutdown will end, which is a variable. In terms of risk control, we only need to pay attention to this point. My plan is to prepare two sets of solutions:
**Plan A: What to do if you need to inject upwards?**
The resistance levels of 96800, 97450, and 97850 can be considered for gradual short covering, just take a light position. I won't touch my original position at 96300-96600 and will respond flexibly. If it really pushes up and a long upper shadow appears, it will still be possible to short at the current price.
**Plan B: What about going straight down?**
Then it's simple. Once it breaks 94000, directly increase the position and short it, rolling it out.
Considering the potential volatility, set two levels for short position risk control: reduce a portion at 98500, and further reduce at 100000 (this is the safest), to maintain an average cost advantage. The overall direction is still bearish, but to avoid being mistakenly hit by a short-term spike upwards, try to set the liquidation point higher. If stopped out within a fluctuation range of 1-2k, it would be too much of a loss. Therefore, for small capital players, let's wait and see on Monday evening.
**As for long positions:**
There is a golden ratio near 94250, and the low long position there can only be done once; if it moves away, don't chase. There isn't any decent support between 94000-90000, and 93300 and 92000 can't hold for long, so only short longs can be made, and the risk-reward ratio isn't great, and long positions can't be held for long. Therefore, it is not recommended to enter long positions above 90000; wait until below 88800 to consider.
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