#美联储恢复降息节奏 The fear index has been in the red for a week. Should we buy the dip or continue to fall?

The market fear index has been off the charts for seven consecutive days, and it's not that simple. It's not just a collapse of emotions; it's a manifestation of the tug-of-war between bulls and bears reaching a critical point. Let's break down the intricacies behind this.

**Where is the cycle located?**
The market is like a seesaw, swaying between greed and fear. Right now, the pointer is stuck in the dead corner of fear. Looking back at the past data, the bear market bottoming out in 2018, the March crash in 2020, and the LUNA and FTX explosions in 2022—each time the index reaches this point, it usually marks an important turning point. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it always follows a rhythm. When fear reaches its peak, greed will naturally bubble up; that’s the rule.

**Who is afraid and who is secretly laughing?**
Who is afraid? Retail investors, short-term traders who chase highs and sell on dips, and gamblers who have taken on high leverage. They watch their accounts shrink, and with another scare from the news, they throw their coins out. Who is secretly positioning? Long-term players and institutional funds. While others panic, they are greedy, steadily picking up the pieces at low prices. What does a week of fear mean? Weak hands are shaken out, and real money buyers are quietly entering the market, signaling a shift in the underlying logic of the market.

**How to operate to avoid losses?**
If you are a left-side trading style, you can start to buy the dip in batches now. Whether it's dollar-cost averaging or buying more as prices fall, focus on hard currencies like BTC and ETH. The gamble is that prices will return to normal levels; don't take short-term fluctuations too seriously. As for right-side traders? Just keep waiting. Wait for the fear index to climb out of the deep pit, and for prices to break through key resistance levels with trading volume; that will be the true starting signal.

However, it should be noted that extreme fear can last for several weeks or even longer, so don't exhaust all your ammunition at once. Emotional reversals require catalysts, such as policy shifts or solid news about large capital entering the market.

Ultimately, the continuous fear readings over the past week indicate that a periodic bottom is almost certain. For long-term investors, this is a window of opportunity where others are fearful, and I am greedy. However, to truly confirm a trend reversal, we need to see sentiment indicators and price movements synchronized upwards. Don't follow the market sentiment; calmly split your positions and build them slowly.