Last Friday, Williams announced support for the Fed to cut interest rates in December. On Monday, Waller and Daly also spoke in favor of the Fed cutting rates in December. Waller doesn't need to be mentioned; he is originally a Trump appointee. Now that Daly also supports the rate cut, it is better news for the market. After all, this recent fall started when Powell announced that there would be no rate cut in December, and it was compounded by the U.S. government shutdown. Now that the shutdown has ended, liquidity is gradually returning.

The key point is that the number of doves supporting interest rate cuts has now exceeded half. According to CME’s prediction data, the current forecast for the Fed's interest rate cut probability in December has exceeded 85%, so the market is gradually warming up. Not only are U.S. stocks rising, but $BTC is also just a step away from ninety thousand. This week is Thanksgiving and Black Friday, mainly the first three days. After that, we can take a break, and I hope nothing unexpected happens.

Some friends asked about filling the gaps. Recently, the gaps for BTC and $ETH have all been filled, and there is another gap of only a few dollars that doesn't count, it's too small, clearly gone.

Looking back at the data on Bitcoin, the turnover rate has returned to a relatively normal level compared to Monday, and investor sentiment has significantly eased. Although expectations regarding the Fed have improved, the bigger trouble for the December rate-setting meeting may be the dot plot and the potential interest rate cut in January 2026. From the current perspective, the dot plot for 2026 should be greater than the two from September, which is considered a positive sign. However, if Powell takes a hard stance on the 2026 expectations, there may still be trouble.

Yesterday was the wallet replacement for Coinbase, which caused significant fluctuations, leading to a large increase of 85,000 USD. However, the structure of the loss chips remains unaffected, and the support has also not been impacted. The probability of returning to the support level is still quite high.