$BTC A night rebound, last night trading volume suddenly surged, breaking through 94,000; in the early morning, it consolidated with reduced volume. $ETH also tested 3,400.

Looking back at the period from 12/06 to 12/10, the signals given by Coinbase premium index are very critical:
🌟Most of the time, it shows a slight positive premium (green)
🌟Occasionally, there are very short-term small red bars (local selling pressure)
🌟Overall premium fluctuation is minimal (market is quiet)
🌟BTC moved from 87,000 → 93,000, but the premium did not expand

This indicates: this rebound is not driven by strong trend buying, but by small buy orders under weak liquidity.

Only when Coinbase premium remains stably above +0.10%, and shows a dense, orderly, volume-backed positive premium structure, does it indicate that US and European institutions are actively and continuously buying; this usually corresponds to the start of a new trend.

This has been very stable over the past two years and is a core indicator many institutions use to observe "US stock fund direction." Currently, this signal has not appeared yet.

But what truly supported this rebound was the ETF inflows on 12/09:
BTC ETF: +$152 million
ETH ETF: +$178 million

The US ETF buying volume is very high quality, and under weak liquidity conditions, it has a very high marginal pulling efficiency on prices.

Moreover, the continuous net inflow of ETFs over the past few days, although modest, also indicates that US funds are steadily, cautiously, and continuously re-accumulating positions.

As for the Federal Reserve rate cut: December rate cut has long been priced in, and the market is resuming its rally, more like a re-pricing of rate cuts in 2026.

Tomorrow at 3 a.m. (Beijing time), the Federal Reserve will announce this year's last interest rate decision.

A new pricing cycle is about to begin……