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, bottom depth of 5,000 (84,500-89,500)
- Measured upward move = bottom depth × 1.618 = 8,090 → Target Price 3 = 84,500 + 8,090 = 92,590 (rounded to 89,500 in practice)
2. Trend Structure:
- Weekly chart breaking through the 2024 downtrend line (89,500→88,500), price above MA(50) 86,200
- RSI(14)=68 (overbought but strong), MACD histogram expanding indicating increasing bullish momentum
3. Market Sentiment:
- Reversal signal in the 84,500 zone with "panic sell-off - long lower shadow"
- Closing above 86,300 for 5 consecutive days (historical support + Fibonacci 38.2% retracement)
4. Indicator Validation:
- OBV hitting a new high in 2024, indicating capital inflow
- Funding rate +0.285% (positive for 8 consecutive days), futures open interest surpassing $180 billion
- On-chain data: exchange net outflow -320,000 coins, whale holdings increase by 42%
Trading Strategy:
- Position Management: 10% of capital + 10x leverage
- Stop Loss: Strictly execute at 84,500; if a "false breakdown" occurs (recovers within 30 minutes), re-enter
- Take Profit Plan:
- 87,500 (neckline): close 50% of position
- 89,500 (previous high resistance zone): exit all positions
This content is for reference only and not investment advice.