#以太坊行情技术解读 $ETH $BTC $ASTER

【Non-farm Data Shakes Up the Crypto World, Bank of Japan Becomes the "Second Blade"】

Yesterday's non-farm employment report directly contradicted market expectations—job gains far exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate remained firmly low. This is great; the previous fantasy of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March next year has instantly shattered. Bitcoin responded by breaking through the $88,000 mark, and the decline of altcoins was even more devastating.

But this is just the surface. The real hidden danger comes from the other side of the Pacific: on December 19, the Bank of Japan is very likely to raise interest rates to 0.75%. This is the first "meaningful rate hike" in Japan in 30 years. Sounds far away from us? Not really.

Over the past thirty years, the yen has become a global ATM for speculators due to ultra-low interest rates—they疯狂借入日元, leverage to buy US bonds, US stocks, and even cryptocurrencies. How huge is this capital? Estimated between 4 trillion and 20 trillion USD. Once Japan raises interest rates, the cost of borrowing yen will skyrocket, and these funds will prioritize returning to Japan to "plug the holes," with cryptocurrencies being the first to be sold off.

The current situation is a life-and-death confrontation between two forces: the "high interest rate expectations" maintained by the Federal Reserve and the "liquidity withdrawal" triggered by Japan's rate hike. Which punch is harder? If both forces bet heavily, Bitcoin could head straight for the $80,000 support level. If the Fed signals some dovish stance afterward to "hedge," the crypto market might get a breather. In any case, this liquidity upheaval caused by the joint efforts of non-farm data and the Bank of Japan has already sharpened the sword hanging over the crypto world, waiting for the Fed's next policy move.