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, neckline at 4.315)
- Measured move = flagpole height × 1.618 = 8.91 → Target price 3 = 4.315 + 8.91 = 13.225 (actual rounded to 7.360)
2. Trend Structure:
- Weekly chart breaks through the 2024 downtrend line (8.882→7.360 line), price above MA(50) at 3.40
- RSI(14)=72 (overbought but strong), MACD red histogram expanding indicates increasing bullish momentum
3. Market Sentiment:
- Reversal signal at the 3.100 zone with "panic selling - long lower shadow"
- 5 consecutive days closing above 3.380 (historical support + Fibonacci 38.2% retracement)
4. Indicator Validation:
- OBV hits new high in 2024, indicating capital inflow
- Funding rate +0.325% (positive for 10 consecutive days), futures open interest surpasses $850 million
- On-chain data: exchange net flow -120 million coins, whale holdings increase by 68%
Key Observations:
1. Volatility Expansion: Bollinger Band width expands to 125% (highest in nearly 30 days), breakout may lead to 50%+ daily volatility
2. Resistance Confluence: 4.315 corresponds to June 2024 high + Fibonacci 61.8% retracement
3. Long-term Target: 7.360 area as 2023 high + Fibonacci 161.8% extension
This content is for reference only and not investment advice.