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, bottom depth 0.99 (11.62-12.61)
- Measured move = bottom depth × 1.618 = 1.60 → Target Price 3 = 11.62 + 1.60 = 13.22 (rounded to 13.59)
2. Trend Structure:
- Weekly chart breaks through the 2024 downtrend line (13.59→13.10 line), price above MA(50) at 12.35
- RSI(14)=58 (neutral leaning bullish), MACD red histogram expanding indicates increasing bullish momentum
3. Market Sentiment:
- Reversal signal at 11.62 with "panic selling - long lower shadow"
- Closing above 11.90 for 5 consecutive days (historical support + Fibonacci 38.2% retracement)
4. Indicator Validation:
- OBV hits new high in 2024, showing capital inflow
- Funding rate +0.185% (positive for 8 consecutive days), futures open interest surpasses $2.8 billion
- On-chain data: Exchange net outflow -32 million tokens, whale holdings increase by 38%
Key Observations:
1. Resistance Confluence: 12.61 neckline corresponds to August 2024 high + Fibonacci 61.8% retracement
2. Volatility Compression: Bollinger Band width shrinks to 3.2% (lowest in nearly 30 days), a breakout could lead to 12%+ daily volatility
3. Long-term Target: 13.59 area aligns with 2023 high + Fibonacci 161.8% extension
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.