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, base length 0.01 (0.2565–0.2665)
- Measure the increase = base length × 1.618 = 0.016 → Target Price 4 = 0.2565 + 0.016 = 0.2725 (actual rounded to 0.2790)
2. Trend Structure:
- Weekly chart breaks through the 2024 downtrend line (connecting 0.2790 and 0.2750), price above MA(50) at 0.265
- RSI(14)=62 (strong zone), MACD red histogram expanding indicates increasing bullish strength
3. Market Sentiment:
- Reversal signal at the 0.2565 zone with "panic selling–long lower shadow"
- Closing prices for 3 consecutive days above 0.2648 (historical support + Fibonacci 38.2% retracement)
4. Indicator Validation:
- OBV hits new high in 2024, indicating capital inflow
- Funding rate +0.185% (positive for 5 consecutive days), futures open interest exceeds $120 million
- On-chain data: exchange net flow -28 million coins, whale holdings increase by 32%
Trading Strategy:
- Position Management:
- Calculated risk at 2%: position size = (2%×Principal) / (0.2665–0.2565)( = 0.2%×Principal
- Stop Loss Mechanism: strictly execute stop loss at 0.2565, re-entry possible if "false break" (recovers within 30 minutes)
- Take Profit Plan:
- 0.2685 (neckline): close 25% of position
- 0.2718 (resistance zone): reduce another 25%
- 0.2750 (Fibonacci 61.8% extension): reduce to 50%
- 0.2790 (historical resistance + measure increase): close all positions
Key Observations:
1. Volatility Compression: Bollinger Band width shrinks to 3.8% (lowest in nearly 30 days), breakout may lead to 10%+ daily volatility
2. Resistance Confluence: 0.2790 corresponds to 2023 high + Fibonacci 161.8% extension
3. Capital Inflow: whale holdings increase by 32%, exchange net flow remains negative
This content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.