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, top height 0.73 (76.45-77.18)
- Measured decline = top height × 1.618 = 1.18 → Target Price 2 = 76.45 - 1.18 = 75.27 (rounded to 73.68)
2. Trend Structure:
- Weekly chart breaks below the 2024 upward trend line (77.18→76.45 line), price drops below MA(50) 76.0
- RSI(14)=42 (weak zone), MACD green bars expand indicating increasing bearish momentum
3. Market Sentiment:
- Reversal signal at the 77.18 zone with "volume increase, stagnation + long upper shadow"
- Three consecutive days of closing below 76.45 (historical resistance + Fibonacci 38.2% retracement)
4. Indicator Validation:
- OBV hits a new low in 2024, indicating continuous capital outflow
- Funding rate -0.155% (negative for 5 consecutive days), futures open interest decreases by 35%
- On-chain data: exchange net inflow +2.8 million tokens, whale holdings decrease by 48%
This content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.