Market Daily Report December 29

These past few days, Bitcoin has played the "drawing door" game three times in a row. On December 22, 26, and 29, it surged high and then quickly dropped. Currently, the short-term market is locked in place, most likely oscillating between $86,000 and $91,000. To see a clear trend, we probably have to wait until after the 2026 opening.

I. The Core Reasons for the Three Drawing Doors

1. Too tightly bound to US stocks
Now Bitcoin is completely following the market trend. Today’s decline was almost directly following the Nasdaq 100 futures down, which fell by 0.5%. Bitcoin responded by dropping first. When market sentiment tightens, Bitcoin always bears the brunt first.

2. The leverage battle at the $90,000 threshold is intense
Every time it approaches $90,000, many traders chase longs with leverage, pushing contract positions and funding rates to high levels. As a result, they become unstable. When prices fall, stop-loss and forced liquidation orders pile up, causing the "drawing door" pattern. According to Coinglass data, during the breakout, global open interest in futures was particularly high. It has now fallen back, with about 662,000 Bitcoins remaining in open contracts, and deleveraging continues.

3. US and Asian trading sessions diverge, year-end funds are selling off
Recent market patterns are very clear: Asia gradually recovers, but during US trading hours, prices are pushed back down. The main reason is year-end tax arrangements and fund settlements by US investors, who sell off with slight gains. Market liquidity is already poor, so selling triggers chain reactions of decline, amplifying volatility.

II. Key Data Signals

1. Spot ETF is underperforming: net outflows over the past 10 days exceeded $1.5 billion, clearly suppressing the price in the short term.
2. Not all institutions are bearish: institutions like Coinbase are still experiencing outflows of custody funds, indicating not everyone is selling. Most likely, some funds are repositioning or reallocating.

III. Key Levels and Market Outlook

1. Two critical price points to watch
- $86,000 is a critical threshold: if broken, it will likely trigger a large number of long liquidations, possibly leading to a drop straight to $80,000.
- $91,000 is a breakout point: if the daily close can stay above this level and the pullback doesn’t break it, bears will be forced to cover, and the price could surge to $95,000–$100,000.
2. Short-term trend: no surprises, most likely oscillating between $86,000 and $91,000. Currently, no one dares to actively enter the market; everyone is watching.
3. Opportunities will come next year: after the 2026 opening, factors like quarterly fund adjustments, ETF fund flows, and US policy expectations could break the current deadlock. The market is just waiting for a reason to re-enter.

IV. Trading Strategy Suggestions

The market is currently locked by various factors, with no clear trend opportunities. It’s recommended to trade within the range, strictly controlling positions and leverage. Focus on the two key levels at $86,000 and $91,000. Avoid blindly chasing rallies or panicking during dips. Be patient and wait for new signals after the 2026 opening.