SignalPlus Macro Analysis Special Edition: Market Calm Period

We live in such an interesting era. Just as the market hits a new all-time high at close, the U.S. government is busy implementing the “Regime Change 2.0” operation worldwide. This morning, we woke up to the news that the Federal Reserve has received a subpoena from the Department of Justice due to ongoing challenges to its independence: “The threat of criminal charges is the result of the Fed setting interest rates based on the best judgment to serve the public, rather than complying with the President’s preferences.”

• Jerome Powell, January 11, 2026

Meanwhile, the latest employment data shows that the U.S. remains in a “Goldilocks” growth scenario: tepid labor figures support the (already) accommodative monetary policy stance, while inflation expectations for fiat currency keep asset prices at a “permanent high plateau.” Although non-farm payrolls fell short of expectations by 50,000, the healthy 4.4% unemployment rate and a strong YoY rebound in average hourly earnings to 3.8% offset this gap. In summary, this is a solid growth report, leading to a slight retreat in market expectations for the Fed to cut rates at the front end of the curve, which has provided good support for the S&P 500, crude oil, and even the dollar.

Another focus this week is the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on the “International Emergency Economic Powers Act” (Trump tariffs case), with no news yet released. The best outcome might be the court prohibiting the government from implementing unilateral tariffs in the future, while allowing existing tariffs to be retained as a one-time political compromise. According to Wall Street analysts, the ruling could be announced on the upcoming decision day this Wednesday.

On the data front, tomorrow’s CPI release will be the highlight, with core CPI expected to increase by 0.27% MoM and 2.7% YoY. The focus will be on housing inflation, especially considering the recent government attention to housing affordability. Following that, PPI (including data for October and November), retail sales (expected to grow by 0.4% MoM), and industrial output data will be released, ending the week.

Cryptocurrency markets have experienced another uneventful week, with BTC hovering around $92,000 without any excitement. The inflows into BTC/ETH ETFs in December and from January this year have been disappointing, with little rebound after a bleak October. On the other hand, traditional financial stock ETFs recorded a record monthly inflow of $235 billion by the end of 2025, as investors have almost fully shifted their speculative habits to stock trading. It remains unclear what catalysts could reverse this trend in the short term.

In addition to prices, interest and attention in cryptocurrencies have also noticeably cooled down. The 30-day average viewership of crypto content on YouTube has plummeted to its lowest level since January 2021, and the X platform has begun restricting and filtering crypto-related content due to an influx of bot accounts.

A slightly more positive sign is that capital outflows have shown some signs of stabilization. The open interest of CME futures contracts (relative to market cap) has slightly rebounded, and futures positioning indicators suggest that the latest de-risking operations may have largely concluded.