Recent developments in the crypto market have been predominantly bearish, driven by regulatory uncertainties, leverage liquidations, macro and geopolitical shocks, and large unlock pressures. Coupled with institutional disagreements and tightening liquidity, short-term volatility and medium-term risks are increasing.

1. Major Bearish Factors (by impact level)

1. Regulatory Policy Uncertainty (High): The US "Digital Asset Market Clarification Act" has been delayed, Coinbase has withdrawn support. The core disagreements involve the ban on interest-bearing stablecoins and the division of authority between SEC and CFTC. If the bill favors traditional banks, it will suppress industry profitability and innovation, triggering compliance panic. The EU’s MiCA compliance deadline in July 2026 is approaching; unlicensed service providers will exit, putting short-term liquidity under pressure.
2. High Leverage Liquidations (High): On January 19, BTC dropped 3.33% briefly, ETH fell 4.09%, with over $600 million in liquidations across the network, 97% of which were long positions. High-leverage margin calls create a "decline—liquidation—further decline" cycle, intensifying panic selling.
3. Macro and Geopolitical Shocks (Medium-High): Hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve delay rate cut expectations, strengthening the US dollar and suppressing risk assets. Geopolitical tensions (such as trade tariffs rumors) lead to capital fleeing crypto and shifting to safe-haven assets like gold.
4. Large Unlocks and Selling Pressure (Medium): Certain tokens are unlocking in concentrated periods, with whales taking profits at high levels. On-chain data shows large BTC/ETH moving from cold wallets to exchanges, resulting in significant short-term sell pressure.
5. Institutional Disagreements and Outflows (Medium): ETF fund net outflows, large transfers of stablecoins into exchanges, widening long-short disagreements, and weakening market liquidity and confidence.
2. Sustainability of Bearish Factors and Impact Rhythm

- Short-term (1–2 weeks): Aftershocks from leverage liquidations and repeated regulatory news are the main sources of volatility; the market may continue to oscillate weakly.
- Medium-term (1–3 months): The implementation of regulatory frameworks, unlock peaks, and macro policies will determine the trend; if US legislation becomes stricter or rate cuts fall short of expectations, bearish sentiment will persist.
- Long-term (6+ months): Clarification of regulations could be an industry clearing event, but short-term pain is inevitable.
3. Trading Risk Tips and Responses

1. Strictly control leverage: Reduce positions and leverage multiples to avoid forced liquidations during extreme volatility.
2. Focus on key time windows: US regulatory bill review, major token unlocks, Federal Reserve rate decisions—prepare hedging or reduce positions in advance.
3. Track chips and liquidity: Monitor whale address transfers, exchange net inflows/outflows, funding rates, etc., to beware of liquidity exhaustion risks.
4. Diversify hedging: Allocate stablecoins or low-volatility assets to reduce exposure to a single asset.