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The business cycle has "reversed"! The recession warning has officially been lifted, and the US stock market is officially entering the "Trump rhythm"?
January's non-farm payroll data exploded onto the scene, directly injecting a super-strong boost to the bulls!
Although some question the credibility of the data (weather, benchmark revisions, delayed releases, and other factors), short-term sentiment is just so real — it really pulled the market back from the edge of the cliff.
The most critical reversal signal: the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped from 4.4% to 4.3%, while non-farm employment added 130,000 jobs, far exceeding market expectations of 50,000 to 70,000! This blow directly shattered the pessimistic narrative that "the US economy is about to slow down and hard land."
The current market logic is very clear: economic slowdown is less important than rate cuts themselves. As long as employment resilience remains, recession fears have no stage.
Even more impressive is the wage side: both average hourly wages month-over-month and year-over-year are accelerating, continuously increasing workers' income, and consumer internal momentum remains hot. This kind of "warm growth" is the strongest support for the US stock market — people have money to spend, and companies dare to invest and expand.
And a bigger shift in sentiment is happening: the market focus has shifted from "Powell watching data" to "Trump watching the Fed."
Although strong employment reduces the probability of rate cuts in the short term, everyone knows:
In Trump and his handpicked Fed chair's view, monetary policy is no longer just a cold tool for inflation control but a powerful weapon to align with industrial policies and fiscal expansion.
This strong employment data has bought valuable time for Trump’s aggressive reforms (tariffs, tax cuts, deregulation, immigration policies, manufacturing resurgence). As long as the economy doesn’t collapse, Trump can push his "America First 2.0" more boldly.
Now, Wall Street is no longer obsessively watching every word from Powell but is starting to bet: when will the era of direct political intervention in rate cuts officially begin?
Recession fears? Over.
Rate cut trades? Temporarily cooled.
But the "Trump trade" — is just beginning to ferment.
US stocks, get ready to迎接真正的「Trump Rhythm」吧!🚀