After Trump vetoed his tariff policy based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act with a 6-3 decision in the Supreme Court, he immediately invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, raising global tariffs from 10% to 15%, with a maximum duration of 150 days. This dramatic turn caused the US dollar index to fluctuate widely around 97.80: supported in the short term by safe-haven demand, but facing long-term risks of stagflation (sticky inflation combined with economic slowdown), fiscal pressures (potential refunds on $175 billion in tariffs already collected), and declining export competitiveness. The crypto market responded differently; Bitcoin briefly dipped after the news but quickly recovered to the $67,000-$69,000 range, with only 1.83% volatility over 24 hours. Open interest in derivatives decreased by 18%, indicating full deleveraging. Institutional funds continued flowing into Bitcoin ETFs, with giants like BlackRock seeing a surge in holdings, suggesting the long-term allocation logic remains unchanged. Internal market segmentation emerged, with DeFi and infrastructure tokens like MORPHO and ZRO rising against the trend, shifting funds from pure speculation to value-driven applications. On the macro level, the 15% tariff will slow global trade growth to just 0.5%, prompting threats of retaliation from major economies such as the EU, UK, and South Korea, while also pushing up US consumer prices and manufacturing costs. The next 150 days represent a policy window; Trump has promised to introduce more sustained "legal tariffs," and the market should remain alert to the risk of new trade legislation or escalating global retaliation. In terms of investment strategy, the US dollar should operate within a range, with light long positions around 97.40-97.60, and strict stop-losses; crypto assets can be accumulated on dips, focusing on core holdings of Bitcoin and Ethereum, with dollar-cost averaging opportunities between 62,000 and 65,000 USD, while also allocating to DeFi projects and keeping some cash on hand to hedge liquidity crises. Bitcoin, as a tool against fiat currency devaluation, is beginning to show macro hedging properties, but short-term risks remain after the 150-day period due to potential policy changes.
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
After Trump vetoed his tariff policy based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act with a 6-3 decision in the Supreme Court, he immediately invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, raising global tariffs from 10% to 15%, with a maximum duration of 150 days. This dramatic turn caused the US dollar index to fluctuate widely around 97.80: supported in the short term by safe-haven demand, but facing long-term risks of stagflation (sticky inflation combined with economic slowdown), fiscal pressures (potential refunds on $175 billion in tariffs already collected), and declining export competitiveness. The crypto market responded differently; Bitcoin briefly dipped after the news but quickly recovered to the $67,000-$69,000 range, with only 1.83% volatility over 24 hours. Open interest in derivatives decreased by 18%, indicating full deleveraging. Institutional funds continued flowing into Bitcoin ETFs, with giants like BlackRock seeing a surge in holdings, suggesting the long-term allocation logic remains unchanged. Internal market segmentation emerged, with DeFi and infrastructure tokens like MORPHO and ZRO rising against the trend, shifting funds from pure speculation to value-driven applications. On the macro level, the 15% tariff will slow global trade growth to just 0.5%, prompting threats of retaliation from major economies such as the EU, UK, and South Korea, while also pushing up US consumer prices and manufacturing costs. The next 150 days represent a policy window; Trump has promised to introduce more sustained "legal tariffs," and the market should remain alert to the risk of new trade legislation or escalating global retaliation. In terms of investment strategy, the US dollar should operate within a range, with light long positions around 97.40-97.60, and strict stop-losses; crypto assets can be accumulated on dips, focusing on core holdings of Bitcoin and Ethereum, with dollar-cost averaging opportunities between 62,000 and 65,000 USD, while also allocating to DeFi projects and keeping some cash on hand to hedge liquidity crises. Bitcoin, as a tool against fiat currency devaluation, is beginning to show macro hedging properties, but short-term risks remain after the 150-day period due to potential policy changes.