Iran's crackdown on Gulf countries' pressure on the United States is counterproductive; multiple countries may retaliate against Iran

On March 3rd, Middle East analysts pointed out that Iran’s airstrikes against Gulf countries could force them to join opposing factions and escalate the war against Iran. Recently, Iran has targeted six Gulf countries with U.S. military bases to pressure President Trump to stop the war, but analysts say Iran seems to have miscalculated. The Gulf Cooperation Council—comprising Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman—held an emergency ministerial meeting last Sunday, citing Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, setting a “red line,” and signaling that collective self-defense would be undertaken if energy supplies are disrupted and security risks increase. The message to Tehran from the GCC was clear: Iran’s attacks have instead strengthened unity among Gulf countries. According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, the probabilities for “which countries will strike Iran before March 31” are 74% for Saudi Arabia, 74% for Qatar, 62% for the UAE, and 30% for Bahrain.