Trump discusses Iran again; the probability of the Iranian regime falling before June 30 is now reported at 38%

GateUser-6433627c · 2026-03-03T17:08:09+00:00

After meeting with Mertz, both sides are united in their stance on overthrowing the Iranian regime. Trump pointed out that Iran has lost its defensive capabilities, emphasized that military action needs to be completed, and expressed hope for a more suitable leader to emerge. The prediction market has increased the probability of the Iranian regime's fall.

GateUser-6433627c

2026-03-03 17:08:09

Abstract generation in progress

On March 4th, U.S. President Trump and German Chancellor Merkel each made statements after their meeting. Merkel said they share the same stance with Trump on overthrowing the Iranian terrorist regime. They will discuss the “post-Iran” era. Trump stated that Iran is attacking countries unrelated to the current situation and no longer has air defense and detection facilities. Today, the U.S. launched another attack on new leaders, and we will continue to move forward. The worst-case scenario is that we attack Iran, and the new leadership is just as bad as before. We hope to see a more suitable candidate. We’ll see how Iran responds, but first, military action must be completed. It might be more appropriate for Iran’s internal figures to handle the Iran issue. According to PolyBeats monitoring, after Trump’s statement, the probability of the “Iranian regime falling before June 30” slightly increased to 38%, and the probability of “Iranian regime falling before March 31” slightly increased to 16% on the prediction market Polymarket.

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