March 4, 2026 (Wednesday) Core Morning News Brief

#美伊局势影响

I. 🔥 Geopolitical Core: Full Escalation of Middle East Situation (Market Volatility Trigger)

1. Key Actions: Iran's Revolutionary Guard announces closure of the Strait of Hormuz, warning to target all passing vessels (approximately 30% of global oil shipping choke points); US and Israel continue airstrikes, Iran retaliates with "Real Commitment-4" operation, striking multiple US military bases in the Middle East.

2. US Response: Trump announces insurance guarantees and naval escort for Persian Gulf oil tankers, claims Iran's military capabilities are severely damaged, denies being dragged into war by Israel, and threatens to cut trade with Spain.

3. China's Position: Ministry of Foreign Affairs strongly condemns US and Israel's military strikes, Wang Yi calls with Israeli Foreign Minister, urges immediate ceasefire, and to safeguard navigation routes; over 3,000 Chinese citizens evacuated, one citizen died in Tehran.

4. Market Impact: Over 150 ships have suspended navigation in the Persian Gulf, shipping risk premiums soar.

II. 💰 Global Finance: Energy and Risk Assets Volatile Fluctuations

1. Commodities (Core Impact Items)

• Crude Oil: Brent temporarily exceeds $84.37 (up over 8%), closing at $81.40 (+4.71%); WTI closes at $74.56 (+4.67%), retracing some gains after Trump’s statement.

• Precious Metals: Domestic Shanghai Gold and Silver main contracts drop 5% and 10% intraday; London Gold initially down 3% then turns positive in the morning, as safe-haven and liquidity dynamics compete.

• Energy & Chemicals: Methanol main contract up 9% intraday, driven by energy substitution and supply concerns.

2. Stock Market Performance (Overnight + Asia-Pacific Morning)

• US Stocks: Major indices all decline, Nasdaq down over 2%, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunges 4.58%; declines narrow after Trump’s remarks.

• A-shares (Yesterday): Shanghai Composite down 1.43%, Shenzhen Component down 3.07%, over 4,800 stocks decline; Petrochemical sector hits two consecutive daily limit-ups, PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC release unusual trading notices.

• Hong Kong Stocks (Yesterday): Hang Seng Index down 1.12%, Hang Seng Tech Index down 2.26%; southbound funds net buy HKD 6.081 billion, Tencent net buy HKD 2.559 billion.

• Europe: UK FTSE 100 drops 2.71%, Germany DAX initially down over 4%, Poland WIG20 down 4.7%.

3. Policies & Macro

• Federal Reserve: Kashkari states uncertainty about rate cuts in 2026, delay in easing expectations, US dollar index strengthens (99.09, +0.72%).

• China: Customs to vigorously promote cross-border trade facilitation, support new formats like cross-border e-commerce; NPC deputies suggest gradually extending A-share trading hours to 4 PM (synchronized with Hong Kong).

• National Two Sessions: The 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference opens today at 3 PM, session lasts 7 days.

III. 🪙 Crypto Market: Capital Contraction Under Extreme Fear (Morning Core)

1. Market Data: BTC at $68,050 USDT (-0.4%), ETH at $2,002 USDT (-1.5%); 24-hour contract liquidations exceed $1.5 billion, Fear & Greed Index at "Extreme Fear."

2. Main Pressure: BTC spot ETF continues net outflows, institutions cautious; risk-averse funds flow into gold, crude oil, and other high-risk assets, pressuring crypto.

3. Regulation & Industry: CFTC states perpetual futures linked to crypto will soon launch; Citi plans to launch institutional-grade Bitcoin custody services in 2026.

4. Domestic Regulation: Eight departments reiterate that virtual currency-related activities are illegal financial activities, crack down on money laundering, scams, and other illegal crimes.

IV. 📱 Technology & Industry

• Google: Launches Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite, positioned as the fastest and most cost-effective model, available starting today.

• Wanda: Continues asset sales to raise funds, multiple projects taken over by "China State Construction" affiliates.

V. ⏰ Key Time Windows Today (Trading Must Watch)

1. 15:00: The 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference opens.

2. 20:30: US market opens, US stocks and dollar data released, volatility may increase.

3. All day: Middle East situation, Strait of Hormuz navigation updates, crypto ETF fund flows.