Tonight's US CPI data release is the absolute focus of the crypto market, directly impacting the short-term trend of major coins like Ethereum (ETH). The market is currently cautious, waiting for the data to be released before making directional decisions—ETH volatility (IV) has risen to 80%, hitting a recent high, indicating that many institutions and funds have already positioned themselves in anticipation of increased volatility.

If the year-over-year and month-over-month CPI growth remains moderate (as economists predict, around 2.5% annual rate), market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain an accommodative policy will strengthen, which generally benefits risk assets, including ETH. Conversely, if energy prices cause CPI to rise unexpectedly, it could trigger continued tightening of interest rate policies, putting short-term pressure on ETH and other cryptocurrencies, and possibly leading to a flight to safe-haven funds.

Currently, ETH's movement is mainly driven by macro factors. The potential for increased volatility is high—regardless of the data outcome, the market could experience a sharp rally or decline. Traders tend to wait for CPI data to trigger a new round of market moves, so short-term trading should be especially cautious. Leverage long and short positions, as well as spot funds, are in a sensitive zone where "who moves first will suffer first."

Risk alert: ETH's current volatility expectations are extremely high. Once the CPI data is released, the market could instantly widen the trading range. It is recommended to monitor key price levels and prepare risk contingency plans. Be especially cautious of leverage risks and sudden event impacts, as the data release may cause sharp reversals in the market.