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After the Golden Waterfall, How Will the New Week's Market Play Out?

The essence of trading is finding probabilistic advantages of certainty within uncertainty, patiently waiting for the market segment that belongs to you.

Looking back at last week, we maintained a firm bearish stance starting from 5030, consistently held our positions, and the mid-to-long-term target range of 4500~4400 that we previously provided has been successfully reached. The market movement has completely validated our judgment, and bearish momentum has been fully released.

From a news perspective, Fed rate cut expectations continue to be delayed, the US dollar and US Treasury yields remain at elevated levels, continuously suppressing gold prices. Global gold ETF holdings saw consecutive outflows, and the cash flow bias remains bearish with limited foundation for a strong reversal in the short term. From a technical perspective, after prices have continuously plunged significantly, they have entered a key support zone. Both daily and four-hour levels are in overbought conditions, the Bollinger Band lower band opens downward, and MACD green columns show signs of narrowing. Although the overall bearish pattern remains strong, there is limited room for further significant declines. After market open, prices will likely consolidate and recover first with technical pullbacks as the main theme. Bulls and bears enter a phase of alternating games, waiting for the pattern to become clearer before choosing a direction.

Operationally, maintain a low-long high-short approach. If prices pull back to the 4470-4480 zone and stabilize, establish light positions to speculate on rebounds with targets on 4530-4560, with stops below 4450. If rebounds encounter resistance at 4560-4580, positions can be established following the trend with targets on 4450-4420, with stops above 4600. Overall, respond with a stable approach, avoid aggressive chasing entries, and patiently wait for clearer entry signals.

The above analysis is merely a personal trading perspective sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market carries risks; trading requires caution. Profits and losses resulting from such operations are self-borne.

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