# Translation

The pie is now going against the crude oil situation, technically speaking very clearly and specifically. So let's review history to get a feel for it.

This time is similar to 1973 and 1979, where geopolitical conflicts directly impacted core transportation channels.

Similar to 1979, there are risks of political transitions.

Differences:
· The US has shifted from the largest importer to a net exporter, with energy independence significantly enhanced
· Shale oil provides flexible production capacity, but Saudi Arabian crude being unable to be exported remains a critical weakness

Key signals for resolution:
· Short-term: Whether the set April 9th "target date" can achieve an agreement
· Mid-term: Safety of alternative transportation routes and the speed of capacity improvements
· Long-term: Whether the US will deploy strategic petroleum reserves and the speed of shale oil production increases.

PS Following the previous taco [event], before personnel reach end of month, this week is in a peaceful period.