Carnival Stock (CCL): Here’s Why Analysts Are Lowering their Price Targets Ahead of Q1 Earnings

Cruise operator Carnival Corporation (CCL) is scheduled to announce its results for the first quarter of Fiscal 2026 on March 27. CCL stock has declined 19% over the past month due to a spike in oil prices amid the U.S.-Iran conflict. Ahead of Q1 FY26 earnings, several analysts have lowered their price targets for CCL stock to reflect elevated fuel prices. However, most analysts remain bullish on Carnival’s long-term growth prospects and see attractive upside in the stock.

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Meanwhile, the consensus adjusted earnings per share estimate of $0.19 for Q1 FY26 reflects 46% year-over-year growth. Carnival’s fiscal first-quarter revenue is expected to grow 5.7% to $6.14 billion.

Analysts’ Views Ahead of CCL’s Q1 Earnings

Heading into Q1 earnings, Truist analyst Patrick Scholes lowered his price target for Carnival stock to $30 from $34 and reiterated a Hold rating as part of a broader research note on cruise lines after analyzing future cruise bookings and pricing. The 4-star analyst noted that while the “Wave Season” has been “decent,” the ongoing geopolitical tensions have highlighted sector risk and valuation woes.

Scholes added that, following the post-COVID “normalization” of demand and increased supply, net yield growth is no longer significantly higher than the company’s outlook, as it was 1 to 3 years ago.

Meanwhile, TD Cowen analyst Kevin Kopelman lowered his price target for CCL stock to $33 from $38 and reiterated a Buy rating. As part of a Q1 earnings preview for stocks in the cruise group, Kopelman reduced his 2026 earnings estimates to reflect increased fuel costs. The 4-star analyst sees Carnival’s earnings as a potential negative catalyst, given the possibility of a large downward revision to the earnings outlook and a yield cut. That said, Kopelman noted that travel trends have been “resilient” to date.

Likewise, Barclays analyst Brandt Montour slightly lowered his price target for Carnival stock to $36 from $37 and reaffirmed a Buy rating in his Q1 preview. The 4-star analyst expects Carnival to report “solid” Q1 results and issue a stable Fiscal 2026 yield outlook despite a challenging macro backdrop. Montour noted that the pullback in CCL stock due to higher fuel prices has generally presented “good medium-term entry-points.”

Is CCL a Good Stock to Buy?

Currently, Wall Street has a Strong Buy consensus rating on Carnival stock based on 11 Buys and two Holds. The average CCL stock price target of $35 indicates 37.3% upside potential.

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