Once the war ends, which sectors will increase in value first?

Once the geopolitical conflicts end, which sectors will be the first to experience a retaliatory surge? Major players might start buying in anticipation of the end of the war, as they are more eager to recover their losses. As retail investors, as long as we prepare in advance, even if we’re a bit slower, we can still keep up. Focus on these four sectors; whether they rebound and recover losses or even hit new highs depends on them.

The first sector is AI plus technology. This is where capital will flow back first, especially in core areas like computing power and AI hardware. When there are signs of easing in the news cycle, AI technology sectors are usually the first to stop falling and turn positive. However, risks haven’t been fully eliminated yet, and major players can’t fully unleash their efforts or operate smoothly. Once external risks are resolved, it will be time for a full-scale attack, and the sector will soar.

The second sector is new energy. During the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, oil prices surged, and after the markets stabilized, energy storage and photovoltaic equipment experienced a two-month rally, with many core companies doubling in value in a short period. This oil crisis also highlighted China’s advantages in new energy, with global supply chains reshaping and export orders accelerating.

The third sector is power and grid equipment. The end goal of AI is electricity, and authorities are actively promoting integrated computing and power projects, with strict requirements for green electricity—80%. Recently, key players in this sector have been trying to break through and reach new heights. Once the war ends, the narrative of North American power shortages will resurface, and transformers and grid equipment will be repaired.

The fourth sector is semiconductors. This is where the most capital is concentrated, involving social security funds, insurance capital, large funds, public and private equity, and more. It is also the sector most affected after geopolitical conflicts begin. Semiconductor material supplies have been impacted, with helium supply cut off, and soaring oil prices and transportation disruptions have directly increased electricity costs. Chip manufacturing itself is energy-intensive. After the war ends, capital will flood in for valuation recovery.

These four sectors are the top choices for capital after the war ends. During market conditions like in March, institutional and retail funds suffer heavy losses—they are even more eager to recover their losses. If we prepare early, we can seize opportunities sooner, recover what we’ve lost, and even double our gains.