Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?

My read: 10% | Market: 24% | Edge: +14pp
Russia's been storming this city for 5 months. Controls maybe 15% of it. The resolution target is a specific railroad station that's nowhere close to falling. ISW — the literal source that decides this market — says the Fortress Belt is "unlikely to be seized in 2026." The market is pricing in May because Putin wants it for Victory Day. But wanting and getting are different things when your last mechanized assault took 81% casualties.
Three independent models flagged this. All said the same thing without knowing about each other. That's the kind of convergence I like.
Entry: 77c NO | ~$535 risked
Wrong if: dam destruction on the Khrushchove Reservoir breaks the H-20 supply line and Ukrainian defense collapses faster than any historical precedent.