Ben mentioned that the timing of the four consecutive Bitcoin cycle peaks coincides precisely, believing this is not a random market fluctuation but a strong cyclical characteristic validated over more than a decade. From February 2014, February 2018, February 2022, to February 2026, the cyclical lows of each major Bitcoin cycle have fallen exactly in February, a pattern rarely broken in past cycles.

Furthermore, the market behavior after the February lows follows a highly consistent script: in March, a lower high than the previous one is formed; then in April, the market weakens further; summer enters a phase of stagnation, with occasional counter-trend rebounds, but it’s difficult to reverse the overall weak trend.

Ben emphasizes that this is not an isolated cycle but a pattern repeated four times in succession. This regularity is far more valuable for reference than a single technical indicator and directly supports his core judgment that "this bear market will not be as severe as in 2022."

In addition to the timing cycle, Ben’s assessment of the bear market retracement extent is also based on linear extrapolation of historical data. Looking back at past major bear markets in Bitcoin, the first bear in 2011 saw a decline of nearly 94%, with subsequent cycles narrowing: 87% in 2014, 84% in 2018, and further narrowing to 77% in 2022. The maximum retracement in each bear market has been gradually decreasing, driven by ongoing changes in market participants, capital volume, and compliance levels, making the market increasingly resilient. $BTC