Bitcoin is about to enter a new monthly cycle.

Historically, the first week brings action — 7 out of 9 times BTC moves more than 5%. That’s enough to create strong conviction across the market.
But here’s the catch:
Only 2 out of those 9 instances actually continued downward.
Meaning most early moves aren’t trend confirmations…
they’re setups.
You can see it on the chart: Momentum builds → traders chase → then the shift happens.
This is where sentiment becomes dangerous.
At the start of a new month, narratives reset and positioning is light.
That’s exactly when the market can move aggressively in one direction… just to reverse once everyone is aligned.
So don’t just watch the move.
Watch the reaction after it.