BTC Overall Market Analysis

In-Depth Macro Perspective
1. Global Macro Environment
- Federal Reserve Monetary Policy: Currently in the late stage of a high-interest-rate cycle. Markets expect rate cuts by 2026, but the pace of rate cuts is slower than anticipated, keeping the US dollar index high and exerting pressure on risk assets like BTC.
- Global Economy: Global economic growth is slowing, recession expectations are rising, and risk aversion is increasing. Funds are flowing from risk assets into US Treasuries and gold, putting pressure on BTC as a risk asset.
- Cryptocurrency Regulatory Environment: Global regulation is tightening. The US SEC continues to crack down on the crypto industry. The EU’s MiCA regulation has been implemented but with many restrictions. Regulatory uncertainty continues to suppress market sentiment.
- Institutional Funds: BTC ETF fund inflows are slowing, institutional holdings are stabilizing, and there is no large-scale influx of capital, resulting in a lack of upward momentum in the market.
2. Internal Industry Environment
- Halving Cycle Impact: After the 2024 BTC halving, miner selling pressure decreases. However, we are currently in a bear market cycle post-halving. Historical patterns show that 1-2 years after halving is typically the bottoming phase of a bear market, which aligns with the current cycle.
- Ecosystem Development: Development of sectors like Layer2, RWA, AI + crypto, but no super narrative has emerged to drive the market. The market lacks catalysts for upward movement.
- Market Sentiment: Fear and Greed Index is in the fear zone. Retail investor sentiment is low, leverage ratios are continuously decreasing, and the market is in the bottoming phase of a bear market.
Multi-Cycle Technical Deep Dive
1. Short-Term (1-4 weeks, 4-hour level)
Core Indicators
- Moving Averages: EMA5($66,484), EMA10($66,965), EMA30($68,447). Price has broken below all short-term moving averages, which are in a bearish alignment, indicating a fully bearish short-term trend.
- Bollinger Bands (BOLL): Middle band at $68,476, upper band at $72,369, lower band at $64,582. Price has broken below the lower band, Bollinger Bands are opening downward, indicating strong bearish momentum. Short-term oversold conditions suggest a rebound may occur, but the overall downtrend remains.
- Volume: 4-hour trading volume continues to shrink, with no volume on declines or rebounds, indicating clear capital outflow and lack of bullish momentum.
- Auxiliary Indicators: MACD has a bearish crossover with increasing green bars, confirming a bearish trend; RSI is in oversold territory (<30), indicating potential short-term rebound.
Short-Term Outlook
- Core Range: $64,500 ~ $68,500
- First Support: $65,500 (24-hour low), Strong Support: $64,500 (4-hour Bollinger lower band)
- First Resistance: $67,000 (EMA5 resistance), Strong Resistance: $68,500 (4-hour Bollinger middle band)
- Prediction: Short-term oversold rebound targeting $67,000-$68,000. After the rebound, expect further decline toward $64,500-$60,000.
2. Mid-Term (1-3 months, daily level)
Core Indicators
- Moving Averages: EMA5($68,007), EMA10($68,971), EMA30($69,921). Price has broken below all short-term moving averages, which are in a bearish alignment, indicating a clear mid-term downtrend.
- Bollinger Bands (BOLL): Middle band at $70,286, upper band at $74,478, lower band at $66,094. Price has broken below the middle band, accelerating downward toward the lower band at $66,094. Bollinger Bands are opening downward, indicating a strong mid-term bearish trend.
- Volume: Daily volume continues to shrink, with no volume on declines, indicating ongoing capital outflow and no upward momentum.
- Auxiliary Indicators: MACD has a bearish crossover with increasing green bars; RSI is in oversold territory, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound, but the overall trend remains downward.
Mid-Term Outlook
- Core Range: $60,000 ~ $70,000
- Strong Support: $59,980 (phase low). If broken, further decline to $55,000-$50,000.
- Strong Resistance: $70,000 (daily Bollinger middle band). If broken, target $74,000-$76,000.
- Prediction: The mid-term trend is bearish, currently in a consolidation phase. After a rebound, expect continued decline toward $60,000-$55,000. Bottoming process may take at least 1-2 months.
3. Long-Term (6-12 months, weekly/monthly level)
Core Indicators
- Weekly Level: EMA5($68,555), EMA10($72,339), EMA30($85,174). Price has broken below all long-term moving averages, which are in a bearish alignment, indicating a long-term downtrend. Bollinger Bands are opening downward, with the lower band at $59,104 serving as strong support and the upper band at $102,105 as strong resistance.
- Monthly Level: EMA5($77,619), EMA10($85,059), EMA30($77,193). Price has broken below all long-term moving averages, confirming a bearish trend at the monthly level. Bollinger Bands are opening downward, with the lower band at $54,972 as strong support and the upper band at $124,593 as strong resistance.
- Volume: Weekly and monthly volume continues to shrink, with long-term capital continuing to exit, indicating no bullish signals.
- Auxiliary Indicators: Weekly MACD has a bearish crossover with increasing green bars, confirming a long-term bearish trend; monthly MACD also confirms a bearish cycle.
- Prediction: The long-term is in a bottoming phase of a bear market. The current phase is a decline, with a bottoming process expected to last at least 6-12 months. Over the next 12 months, the price is likely to oscillate within the $50,000-$80,000 range, with no bull market in sight.