🚨 First drop to 64,918 then pull back to 67,496. Did you hold through this round of main force's shakeout? 💥

March 30, 2026 13:55

Today’s market was very exciting. Bitcoin first dropped to 64,918, clearing all stop-loss orders, then a large bullish candle pushed it back up to 67,496. Ethereum also went from a low of 1,936 straight up to 2,048.

Crypto note: biantt.com

More importantly—Bitcoin’s SuperTrend on the 1H chart turned green again, with support at 65,989. Ethereum’s SuperTrend is still red, with resistance at 1,990, but the current price of 2,048 is already above that resistance. This wave of initial drop followed by a quick rally is textbook-style shakeout, clearing weak hands before moving higher.
This Bitcoin chart clearly illustrates the shakeout logic. On the left, a long period of sideways consolidation between 66,000 and 67,000, testing traders’ patience. Then suddenly, a sharp drop to 64,918 triggers all stop-loss orders set between 65,000 and 65,500, causing retail investors to cut losses. Immediately after, volume surges—look at the large volume bar below the big bullish candle at 67,777, the largest during this period. This is the rhythm of major players quickly accumulating at lows and then rapidly pushing prices up. SuperTrend turns green again, support at 65,989, and the current price of 67,496 remains above support by about 1,500 dollars. But volume is 6,384, while MA5 is 8,207 and MA10 is 10,175, still below the moving averages, indicating that the rally lacks sustained volume. Whether it can hold steady afterward remains to be seen.
Ethereum’s pattern is very similar. From 1,936 dropping to 2,048, nearly a 112-dollar increase, about 6%. The resistance at 1,990 has been broken, with the current price 58 dollars above it, technically indicating it’s now operating above resistance. SuperTrend is about to turn green. Volume is 197,023, with MA5 at 225,973 and MA10 at 267,416—still below the moving averages, just like Bitcoin, showing the rally’s volume was not sustained, limiting follow-through.
Core takeaway from both charts: the shakeout is complete, Bitcoin’s SuperTrend is turning green, Ethereum is close to doing so, but the lack of volume is the biggest hidden risk. Whether support can hold will be the key moving forward.

📊 【BTC Scenario Analysis】 Current price 67,496
🚀 40% probability: Support at 65,989 holds, stabilizes, and continues upward to 68,000–69,000
A first retest after shakeout is normal. As long as 65,989 holds, this confirms a bullish structure. If volume increases again after contraction at lows, the 68,000–69,000 zone can be targeted, with no significant resistance above.
⚖️ 30% probability: Range consolidation between 66,500–67,800
After the rally, volume quickly diminishes, needing time to digest the floating positions. During this back-and-forth, wait for volume to gather again before choosing a direction. If SuperTrend turns green, sideways movement isn’t bad—it just takes time.
📉 20% probability: Volume fails to follow, price drops back to 66,000–66,500
Today’s low around 64,918 will put pressure on both trapped and short-covering positions. If volume continues to decline, price may fall back to the 66,000–66,500 range. As long as 65,989 support holds, the bullish structure remains intact.
☠️ 10% probability: Break below 65,989, shakeout turns into a real decline
Losing support means this rally was just a short-term rebound. The low at 64,918 faces a second test, possibly even lower. If that happens, quick action is necessary.

📊 【ETH Scenario Analysis】 Current price 2,048
🚀 40% probability: SuperTrend confirms green, targeting 2,058 previous high and 2,095 zone
Price has already broken above 1,990 resistance, with SuperTrend about to turn green. If volume cooperates, the first target at 2,058 will be broken, with 2,095–2,100 as the next goal. Ethereum’s decline this time was deeper than Bitcoin’s, so the rebound potential is proportionally larger.
⚖️ 30% probability: Range consolidation between 1,990–2,058, waiting for Bitcoin to lead
Ethereum’s movement depends on Bitcoin. During this range, whether SuperTrend turns green or not follows Bitcoin’s trend. If volume doesn’t pick up, just wait.
📉 20% probability: Retest 1,990 support after rally
Volume shrinks after the rally, causing a slight pullback to test 1,990. If this level turns from resistance into support and buying volume appears, it’s a good entry point—only if support holds can it truly turn green.
☠️ 10% probability: Break below 1,990, test 1,936 lows again
If resistance fails, it becomes support again. The 1,936 low faces a second test, turning this shakeout into a trap. If Bitcoin weakens simultaneously, this probability increases.

💡 【Hardcore Trading Strategy】 Essential for risk management
This wave of drop then rally is classic shakeout. Those who got shaken out will regret it now, but chasing the top is risky—volume hasn’t caught up, and prices aren’t cheap.
🎯 Best actions:
∙ BTC: Wait for retest of 66,500–65,989 for signs of stabilization before going long. Stop-loss below 65,800. Target 68,500. Chasing longs at current prices is not cost-effective.
∙ ETH: Wait for retest of 1,990–2,010 for signs of stabilization before going long. Stop-loss below 1,970. Target 2,095. Add positions after SuperTrend confirms green.
Avoid shorting for now—Bitcoin’s SuperTrend is green, and shorting against the trend is the easiest way to get caught off guard or liquidated.
Wait for retest, find good entry points, don’t chase at the middle of the move.

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⚠️ Content for reference only, not investment advice. Market risks are real, make independent decisions.