#创作者冲榜 Bitcoin may fall below $60,000, with the recovery cycle possibly delayed until 2027, as whale selling pressure intensifies downside risk

Latest data shows that if Bitcoin further drops below $60,000, the market's return to its all-time high could be pushed back to 2027.
Analysis indicates that Bitcoin has retraced about 48% from its peak of approximately $126,000 in 2025. Historically, for every 10% decline, the recovery period extends by an average of 80 days. Currently, if $60,000 is considered a stage bottom, it is expected to take about 300 days to recover; however, if it continues to decline to the $40,000–$45,000 range, the overall retracement could exceed 60%, and the recovery period may extend to approximately 440 days, pushing the timeline to after Q2 2027.
On-chain indicators also show that the bottom has not yet been confirmed. The comprehensive market index (BCMI) is currently around 0.27, higher than the historical bottom range (about 0.12–0.15), indicating further downside potential.
In terms of capital flow, whale selling continues to increase pressure. Data shows that large holders' selling activity has reached its highest level in nearly 18 months, while liquidity in spot and futures markets is weakening simultaneously.
Institutional views suggest that the market is in a deep correction cycle. If macroeconomic conditions remain tight (including sustained high interest rates or further rate hikes), the pace of crypto market recovery will be further delayed.
Glassnode: BTC is currently at the lower end of the new capital entry cost zone, with no clear bullish momentum signals
On X platform, on-chain data platform Glassnode stated that Bitcoin's current price is at the lower end of the new investor capital cost zone ($60,000–$70,000). Data shows some accumulation within this range, but the overall scale remains below the typical levels that have historically driven strong rebounds, indicating relatively weak chip density. The current accumulation structure is constructive in form but lacks strength, and no clear bullish momentum signals have been formed.

Analyst: Key resistance for Bitcoin is $72,500, likely to face continued pressure in the coming months
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted that "BTC has yet to reclaim the realized price after excluding long-dormant supply. To better reflect circulating chips, Bitcoin supply held for over 7 years is excluded. Lost Bitcoins and long-term 'diamond hand' holdings are filtered out. After this adjustment, Bitcoin's realized price is approximately $72,500, which now acts as resistance. BTC has been below this level for about two months. In previous bear markets, BTC stayed below this cost basis for 6 to 10 months and failed to recover it effectively. If this pattern repeats, BTC may continue to face pressure in the coming months, likely trading below $72,500."

Tom Lee predicts crypto winter will end in April
Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee stated in an interview that the current "crypto cold winter" is about to end. He believes that this decline may have already bottomed out or will end before April 2026. He pointed out that recent Ethereum price movements are strongly correlated with past declines in the S&P 500, including the 1987 stock market crash and the 2011 debt ceiling crisis. Currently, long-term holders continue to hold their positions, while exchange-held balances are decreasing. These signals often align with the accumulation phase near market bottoms. Previously, it was reported that BitMine increased its ETH holdings by over 65,000 in late March, with total holdings exceeding 4.6 million ETH.