From the current market structure, $65,000 is the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears, but defending this level is extremely difficult and there is a risk of losing it. Currently, BTC is fluctuating around $66,000-$67,000, and is in a critical testing period.

Technical outlook: Near breaking point

- Key support level: $65,000 - $65,500 is a recent dense trading zone and also the trendline support since February. If the daily closing price effectively breaks below this range, the downside potential will open up.
- Lower support: If $65,000 is lost, the next strong support is in the $61,500 - $64,000 range, with an extreme possibility of dropping to the psychological level of $60,000.

Macro and capital pressure

- Geopolitical risks: The US-Iran conflict has pushed oil prices higher, intensifying inflation concerns, which suppresses the Fed's rate cut expectations and puts pressure on risk assets (including BTC).
- Capital outflows: Recent net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs indicate insufficient institutional buying and a lack of incremental funds to support prices.

Trading observation points

- Stabilization signals: Watch whether the price can consolidate with reduced volume around $65,000 and regain above $70,000 to reverse the weakness.
- Risk management advice: If you hold positions, it is recommended to set the $64,000 - $65,000 zone as a reduction or stop-loss area to prevent a drop below $60,000.