Elon Musk stated: Quantum computing may have the ability to recover lost encrypted wallet passwords in the future.

Musk's statement is half joking, half warning. The conclusion is: theoretically possible, but not achievable in the short term (5-10 years), and a huge threat in the long term (10-20 years).

1. Why say "possible"? (Technical principles)

Encrypted wallets (like Bitcoin) rely on elliptic curve cryptography (ECDSA), which is private key → public key → address.

- Traditional computers: Reversing from public key to private key would take billions of years.
- Quantum computers (Shor's algorithm): Can use mathematical shortcuts to compute the private key from the public key in minutes.
- Musk's point: When quantum computing power becomes strong enough in the future, it could brute-force recover lost private keys/passwords and unlock "sleeping" wallets.

2. Can it be done now? (Practical barriers)

No, far from it.

1. Computing power gap: Breaking requires millions of high-quality, fault-tolerant qubits. The most advanced machines currently have only a few hundred, lagging by 5-6 orders of magnitude.
2. Time window: Even if enough computing power exists, the cracking must be completed within 10 minutes (Bitcoin block time), or it’s invalid.
3. Extremely high cost: Building a machine capable of cracking could cost billions, far exceeding the gains from stealing coins.

3. Three major impacts on the market (must pay attention)

1. Revival of "sleeping assets"
Approximately 4-5 million Bitcoin (about 25% of total supply) are permanently locked due to lost private keys. Once quantum technology matures, these assets could be recovered, causing short-term selling pressure and negative price impact.
2. Collapse of existing cryptosystems
Not only wallets, but all passwords in banking, internet, and blockchain will become invalid. This is a "dimensionality reduction attack" on the digital world.
3. Industry accelerates "quantum-resistant" upgrades
Google has set 2029 as the deadline for post-quantum cryptography migration.
- Short-term: Use SegWit/Taproot addresses that do not expose public keys.
- Long-term: Blockchains must upgrade to quantum-resistant algorithms (like NIST standards), or they will be phased out.

4. Personal recommendations (life-saving measures)

1. Stop using old addresses: Cease using early P2PK addresses, switch to SegWit or Taproot addresses.
2. Avoid address reuse: Change addresses with each transaction to reduce public key exposure risk.
3. Large cold storage: Keep assets offline in cold wallets, disconnected from the internet; quantum hackers cannot reach them.
4. Follow upgrades: Hold mainstream coins actively promoting quantum-resistant technology (e.g., ETH is already planning this).

Summary: Musk is reminding everyone that cryptography's endpoint is not the end; the quantum era is on its way. Preparing asset isolation and address optimization now is like buying insurance for the future.