#创作者冲榜 After a month of turmoil in the Middle East, why did the gold price trend reverse?

After a month of conflict in the Middle East, gold and crude oil shifted from the initial "gold down, oil up" to "both rise or fall together," which is a key signal that the market trading logic has undergone a fundamental change.

📊 Phenomenon confirmation: from divergence to resonance

· Gold (GC26M): Latest price (at the time of writing) 4610.3, up 1.16%, with significant intraday volatility, indicating strong buying interest at lower levels.
· Crude oil (Brent B26K): Latest price (at the time of writing) 116.60, up 3.39%, continuing its strength.

This confirms the core characteristic of the recent market: gold and oil are beginning to rise together, and gold shows stronger resilience during oil pullbacks (only a decline in gains).

🔍 Core analysis: why has the trend shifted to "both rising"?

Behind this logical switch is the transformation of the geopolitical conflict from a "risk event" into a "structural crisis":

1. Escalation of geopolitical conflict: from "event-driven" to "supply chain disruption"
The conflict has lasted a month and has seen substantial escalation:

· De facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz: about one-quarter of global maritime oil trade (roughly 20 million barrels per day) is disrupted, with Gulf region exports now less than 10% of pre-conflict levels—this is the largest supply interruption in history.
· Spillover risks: Houthi forces officially involved; Kuwait oil tankers attacked; fighting spreading to energy infrastructure.
· Diplomatic negotiations and military escalation run in parallel: on one hand, countries like Saudi Arabia hold talks to mediate; on the other, Trump threatens to destroy Iran’s Halek Island, while Iran legislates to charge tolls on ships passing through the strait. The situation has not substantially eased.

2. Rebuilding the logic of gold: liquidity shocks end, safe-haven and stagflation trades return
This is the key to explaining "why gold is no longer falling":

· Liquidity crisis alleviated: the previous sharp decline in gold was mainly because gold prices were high, and worsening risk appetite caused liquidity squeezes (investors sold gold for liquidity). As leverage was unwound, gold and stock/bond markets began decoupling.
· Safe-haven attribute restored: as markets realize the conflict may not end soon and even threatens energy security, gold’s status as the ultimate safe-haven asset is reaffirmed.
· Stagflation trading becomes the main theme: sustained high oil prices quickly transmit inflation, while high interest rates suppress economic growth. Markets are beginning to trade the classic stagflation scenario (economic stagnation + high inflation), which is one of the most favorable environments for gold.

3. Macro expectations bottom out: no further room for rate cut expectations to worsen

· Previously, the main factor suppressing gold was the market completely abandoning rate cut expectations and even pricing in rate hikes.
· Currently, rate cut expectations are at rock bottom, with little room for further negative adjustments in the short term. Meanwhile, Fed officials’ hawkish comments are made, but markets are beginning to expect "high interest rates cannot be sustained," as this would impose huge pressure on the US’s massive debt.

4. Funding support: buying on dips and central bank gold purchases

· Institutional contrarian accumulation: during the significant correction in gold prices, long-term funds like pension funds increased their gold long positions.
· "Gold pit" effect: major Wall Street banks (such as JPMorgan, Citigroup, Fidelity) generally see this correction as a rare strategic buying opportunity, with the long-term logic (de-dollarization, currency devaluation, fiscal deficits) unchanged.

📈 Market outlook and strategic reference

Many institutions have provided three scenario analyses based on geopolitical evolution:

Scenario Assumption Core Conditions (Oil Price) Gold Trend Outlook
Optimistic (Strong stagflation) Prolonged conflict, oil stable above $150 Gold and oil strengthen together, gold hits new all-time highs, real interest rates turn negative, USD credibility damaged.
Neutral (Weak stagflation) Limited opening of the strait, oil at $80-100 Range-bound volatility. Liquidity remains tight, with opposing forces of central bank gold purchases.
Pessimistic (Near-recovery) Rapid resolution of conflict, oil drops back to $60 After recovery, oscillates upward. Gold quickly recovers its decline, returning to a rate cut trading logic.

Overall, the current outlook leans more toward a "neutral to optimistic" path. In the short term, the market finds strong support around $4,500, but high-level oscillations are inevitable, with the trend highly dependent on ceasefire negotiations and macro data like US non-farm payrolls.

Strategy suggestions for everyone:

· Short-term: avoid chasing highs. The simultaneous rise of gold and oil often indicates the market is entering a more intense bargaining phase; consider waiting for a pullback (e.g., gold price retesting $4,500 support) before deploying positions.
· Medium to long-term: focus on gold ETFs (such as 518800) or gold stock ETFs (such as 517400). Against the backdrop of de-dollarization and high global debt, gold remains a strategic hedge for credit.

Summary: The current "gold and oil rising together" signals that the market recognizes the geopolitical conflict has substantially impacted global energy supply chains. The liquidity crisis that previously suppressed gold has been resolved, and the trading focus is shifting to stagflation hedging. As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, this logic is unlikely to be invalidated.

This analysis is based on publicly available market information and does not constitute direct investment advice.