US job openings just dropped by 360,000 in one month.

At the same time, consumer confidence came in higher than expected at 91.8 vs 87.8.

On the surface, this looks strong.
But the underlying data is telling a different story.

Chicago PMI fell to 52.8 from 57.7 last month. That is a sharp drop in manufacturing activity in a very short time.

JOLTS job openings came in at 6.88M vs 7.24M last month. That is a clear decline in demand for workers.

So we now have:

• Consumers still feeling confident
• Jobs declining
• Manufacturing slowing

This combination does not stay stable for long. Consumer confidence is usually a lagging indicator.

It reflects how people felt in the recent past, not what is happening right now. Jobs and manufacturing data tend to move first. That is what we are starting to see here.

If this trend continues, the confidence data will likely follow lower in the coming months.