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Gold rebounds after a 26% plunge within the year
Amid the Israel-U.S. conflict, oil prices surged 60%, gold retreated 26% from a high of $5,598 to $4,099, then rebounded to $4,600 after nine consecutive declines. The US dollar index also broke above 100, with all three breaking the usual correlation and rising together.
The market is driven by interest rates, liquidity, and expectations. Geopolitical risks pushed up oil prices, the Federal Reserve's high interest rate expectations supported the dollar, and gold relied on its safe-haven and inflation-hedging properties to recover.
The current selling pressure on gold has eased, with central bank gold purchases and bottom-fishing funds providing support. However, a simultaneous rise in all three is unlikely to continue. The key to the future depends on Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical developments. The long-term bullish case for gold remains unchanged.