Q1's cleaning effort is intense: BTC has fallen 52% from the all-time high of 126,220. The greed index has been in extreme fear for 46 consecutive days. ETH has been cut in half from its peak, down 60%. Leverage has been wiped out, tourists have left, and only genuine capital remains.

But three catalysts are lining up on the April calendar. First: The CLARITY bill will be discussed in the Senate from April 13-20. Passing it would make it the United States' first crypto market structure law. Second: The Federal Reserve FOMC meeting on April 28-29, with Powell hosting for the last time—every word will be amplified. Third: If the Houthis crisis ends within 2-3 weeks as Trump said, the drop in oil prices will directly release risk appetite.
On-chain bottom signals are also lighting up: Greed and fear index has fallen to 8. Historically, when it drops below 15, the 30-day average return is +18.3%. Perpetual contracts with negative funding rates have reached a new high since 2022, with short-squeeze pressure at its limit. Exchange reserves are at a 7-year low, and whales are aggressively accumulating on-chain.
April's average historical return exceeds 30%. But history is not a promise, only a probability. When fear is extreme, catalysts are dense, and on-chain chips are concentrated, there's no need to debate which side the probability favors. #四月行情预测 $BTC $ETH