Current (April 2): $2,047, slight pullback, oscillating and bottoming out

- Trend judgment: Wide-range oscillation, forming a bottom first then rebounding

- Key support: $2,000 (strong psychological threshold)

- Key resistance: $2,400–$2,500 (consolidation zone)

- Conclusion:
Breaking $2,180 indicates relative strength; falling below $1,900 may test $1,700–$1,800.
Short-term, large gains are unlikely; mainly oscillating.

II. Medium-term (3–12 months, full year 2026)

Mainstream institutional forecasts (comprehensive):

- Conservative: End of year $3,000–$4,000

- Neutral: $4,000–$5,000

- Optimistic (Standard Chartered, etc.): $7,500

Core drivers (reasons for rise):

1. Federal Reserve rate cut cycle (liquidity easing)

2. Continuous capital inflows into ETH spot ETFs

3. Layer2 explosion + mainnet upgrades (Glamsterdam/Fusaka)

4. RWA (Real World Asset Tokenization), Ethereum accounts for 65%

5. Increased staking rate → circulating supply tightens

Core risks (reasons for decline):

- L2 diverting gas from mainnet, weakening ETH value capture

- Competition from public chains like Solana + regulatory uncertainty

- Macroeconomic recession, risk aversion, institutional selling

- Low gas fees → reduced burning, rising inflation

Medium-term conclusion:
Stronger in the second half of the year, higher probability after July.
Stabilizing above $3,000 opens space for $5,000+; dropping below $1,800 signals a bear market.

III. Long-term (1–3 years)

- Major trend: Long-term upward, but highly volatile

- Ceiling: New all-time high above $4,800 must be broken;
Next bull market range: $10,000–$20,000 (conservative institutional estimate).

- Logic: $ETH