As of April 3, 2026, international oil prices are experiencing extreme volatility. Dominated by the Middle East geopolitical crisis (Strait of Hormuz blockade), after a historic surge in March, prices spiked again on April 2, with WTI and Brent crude both firmly above $110 per barrel.

📊 Latest Price Overview (Close on April 2)

Product Price Change Remarks
WTI Crude Oil (US Oil) $111.54/barrel +11.41% Rare lead and premium over Brent
Brent Crude Oil $109.03/barrel +7.78% Main contract price
Shanghai Crude Oil (SC) 687.4 RMB/barrel -1.21% Due to time zone differences and exchange rates, not fully reflecting overseas market gains

📈 Core Drivers: Geopolitical Crisis and Supply Disruption

This surge is not driven by normal supply and demand but is the extreme manifestation of "war risk premium":

1. Key Shipping Lane Blockade: Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a roughly 90% drop in shipping volume, disrupting about 20% of global oil transportation, spreading panic over physical supply disruptions.
2. Escalation of Tensions: President Trump’s remarks about “forceful action” against Iran shattered market expectations of a short-term ceasefire, triggering short covering ahead of the Easter holiday.
3. Extreme Spot Tightness: The spot price of Brent crude (Dated Brent) has soared to $141.36 per barrel (a new high since 2008), far above futures prices, indicating extreme tightness in the physical market.

🔮 Market Outlook and Risks

- Short-term (1-2 weeks): High volatility with potential for sharp rises and falls. Prices are fully anchored to the Middle East conflict. Any signs of reopening the Strait of Hormuz could lead to rapid price correction; if the conflict spills over (e.g., affecting the Mende Strait), Brent could surge to $120–$150.
- Institutional forecasts: Most expect the average price in Q2 2026 to be raised to $100–$110. Citibank sees a baseline scenario of $95, with bullish scenarios reaching $130.

$XTIUSD

Risk Warning: The current market logic has shifted from economic fundamentals to “survival hedging.” Close attention should be paid to developments in the Strait of Hormuz and US-Iran negotiations, as any change could trigger over 10% volatility in oil prices.
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