#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Check-in, check-in, crude oil prices surged rapidly. The future Middle East situation remains uncertain, but just like gold and silver, which tend to pull back after a long-term bull run!

Geopolitical: The ceasefire negotiations are the biggest uncertainty. The latest news indicates that the Trump administration is involved in mediating in the Middle East, and Iran has signaled a preliminary ceasefire. If negotiations make substantial progress within April and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, the current “war premium” of $20 -$30 per barrel may quickly decline.

Demand Side: The “demand destruction” caused by high oil prices. The high energy costs have begun to bite into the economy. Due to the doubling of jet fuel and diesel prices, the global airline industry has experienced widespread flight cancellations. The IEA forecasts that global oil demand growth in 2026 has been revised down to 640,000 barrels per day, well below earlier expectations.

Supply Compensation: U.S. shale oil and inventory releases. The U.S. is expected to increase production to 13.6 million barrels per day by 2026. Although it’s difficult to fill the Middle East gap in the short term, under the stimulus of prices above $100 , non-OPEC countries’ capacity is accelerating release.