Non-farm payrolls beat expectations → Bitcoin declines: 3 core reasons

1. Complete reversal of rate cut expectations (core)
Strong non-farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, causing a sharp drop in the probability of a rate cut in June. The market re-prices "higher interest rates for longer." As a zero-yield risk asset, Bitcoin's opportunity cost rises significantly, prompting institutional funds to flow back into the dollar and U.S. Treasuries.

2. Double suppression from the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields (direct pressure)
The dollar index surges, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumps, leading to passive depreciation of Bitcoin priced in USD. Liquidity for high-risk assets continues to be drained.

3. Risk appetite shift + leverage liquidation (amplifying decline)
Expectations of a soft landing boost the attractiveness of U.S. stocks, causing crypto funds to flow out; combined with large profit-taking above $70k and high leverage longs, triggering concentrated forced liquidations and a "buy the dip" sell-off pattern.

Current core features of the crypto market

1. Macro dominance, short-term technical/halving narratives lose effectiveness
Federal Reserve policy expectations and the strength of the dollar are the key variables. Geopolitical risk aversion and cautious pre-holiday funds increase volatility.

2. Short-term institutional fund outflows
BTC spot ETF experienced its first significant net outflow in nearly 3 weeks, GBTC's discount widened, and institutional selling willingness increased.

3. Short-term pressure, medium-term resilience remains
Selling pressure mainly from short-term traders and leveraged positions; long-term holders have not exited en masse. The medium-term outlook depends on April CPI, upcoming non-farm payrolls, and FOMC guidance.

Market outlook

• Short-term: Entering a macro-driven consolidation and bottoming phase

• Medium-term: If inflation recedes, rate cut expectations will return, and prices may rebound; if inflation remains sticky, prices will consolidate within a range

• Long-term (6+ months): Halving supply deflation and institutional allocation logic remain unchanged; valuation support persists