Gold: Calm Thinking After the Safe-Haven King Breaks to a New High

Gold has continued to trade at high levels after breaking through $2,400 per ounce in early April to set a record high. The latest quote on April 5 is about $4,676 per ounce. There are three core logics behind this round of gains: first, Trump’s escalating military threats toward Iran have sharply increased demand for geopolitical safe havens; second, Trump’s tariff policy continues to expand—adding 100% tariffs to imported medicines and imposing a unified 25% tariff on steel, aluminum, and copper—intensifying global trade frictions and inflation expectations; third, sustained long-term structural support as global central banks continue to buy gold.

After Trump’s national address on April 1, gold briefly continued its uptrend, but then pulled back due to a strengthening U.S. dollar. On April 2, the gold price fell by more than 2%. It was capped by the 20-day moving average at $4,780, while support was at the 100-day moving average of $4,632. Recently, the precious metals market overall has undergone a broad and synchronized correction. Gold has been moving within the $4,574 to $4,751 range, down about 15% to 22% from the nearly $5,595 high in January, which is a controllable pullback after a long period of gains.
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After news emerged that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire mediation has fallen into a stalemate, gold has gained support again. Iran refused to meet with the U.S. in Islamabad, and the U.S. side’s demands were clearly rejected. Turkey and Egypt are still working to find alternative solutions, but progress has been slow. As long as geopolitical uncertainty persists, gold’s appeal as the ultimate safe-haven asset will not fade. Technically, the $4,600 to $4,650 area is a key near-term support zone. If this zone holds, the gold price is likely to retest resistance at $4,780 to $4,800; if geopolitical conditions unexpectedly ease, there is a risk of a rapid pullback to below $4,500.

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