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1. Technical Resistance: $69,000-$70,000 is a dense trapping zone + whale sell-off concentration area. After a high of 69,122 intraday, a long upper shadow formed, indicating waning bullish momentum. Overbought conditions suggest a clear need for a pullback.
2. Macro Bearish Pressure: US-Iran détente reduces risk aversion, Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates, capital flows back into USD assets, and liquidity in the crypto market is under pressure.
3. Expert Warning: Arthur Hayes explicitly warns of a short-term break below $60k. Long-term bullish outlook remains, but currently no entry; reinforcing short-term bearish expectations.
4. Trend Structure: Weekly bearish alignment remains unchanged. The current rebound is only a correction within a downtrend, not breaking the downward channel.
Trading suggestion: Consider shorting on rebounds near 69,500-70,000.
First target: 68,500
Second target: 66,500
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