**HYPE: The Intense Battle Between Deflation and Unlocking**

As of April 7, 2026, HYPE is priced at approximately $37.48, with a 24-hour low of $35.15. The market is currently caught in a tug-of-war between "extreme deflation fundamentals" and "monthly unlocking selling pressure."

**Short-term Major Variable: Large Unlock on April 6**

At 08:00 Beijing time on April 6, approximately 9.92 million HYPE (worth about $350-370 million, accounting for 2.66% of circulating supply) will be unlocked all at once to core contributors (the team). This cliff-style unlock indicates significant short-term selling pressure. Based on historical patterns (such as APT, AVAX, and other public chains), the first 3-5 days after unlocking (April 6-9) are high-risk periods for the team and VCs to transfer tokens; April 10-12 serve as an observation period—if the price no longer hits new lows, initial absorption may be underway; after April 13, on-chain token transfers slow down, and selling pressure may be largely absorbed. Notably, the same unlocking mechanism occurs on the 6th of each month, so continued attention is needed for the next schedule on May 6.

**Long-term Value Anchor: Extreme Deflation Mechanism**

HYPE’s core value support comes from its aggressive buyback and burn model. 97% of protocol fees are used for open-market buybacks and token burns. On April 2, HyperCore repurchased and burned 49,360.33 HYPE at an average price of $35.09. After distributing 26,665 tokens to stakers and validators on the same day, the net circulating supply still decreased by 17,075 tokens. The annualized deflation rate is approximately 6.15 million HYPE, equivalent to removing about 512k tokens per month from circulation. Even under the worst-case scenario assuming the team unlocks and sells all 173k tokens monthly, the protocol can still maintain a net deflationary state. Currently, protocol revenue has surpassed $993 million, with open interest reaching a record high of $2.3 billion, but the token price remains about 40% below the peak of $59.37 in 2025.

**Technical Outlook: Bearish Structure Not Reversed Yet**

On April 2, HYPE broke below the $37 support level. Previously, multiple tests of this level resulted in rebounds, but recently it has failed to retake the $43.7 high. Key support zones are at $33-35; a volume breakdown below this could lead to next demand zones at $29.5-32.4 and $26-28. Upper immediate resistance levels are at $37.64 (Bollinger Band upper band) and the $38 round number. RSI has fallen below neutral, and Chaikin Money Flow is near -0.15, indicating ongoing capital outflows.

**On-chain Data: Whale Bull-Bear Divergence Intensifies**

On the unlock day, whale behaviors were highly polarized: bearish side, whale address loracle.hl liquidated all 450k HYPE (about $15.01 million USDC), with 12.72 million USDC transferred to centralized exchanges; bullish side, whale yeti.hl deposited 2.19 million USDC into HyperLiquid about 30 minutes after unlock, buying 58,884 HYPE at an average of $37.21. Additionally, over the past three days, approximately $11.7 million worth of HYPE has net flowed out of exchanges, indicating some funds are shifting toward long-term holding.

**Key Risk Warnings**

First, the high FDV valuation, with a circulating market cap of about $9 billion and a fully diluted valuation of roughly $35 billion, will pose long-term inflationary pressure as 75% of tokens are released. Second, intense competition exists; as an independent L1 chain, HyperLiquid must compete with mature ecosystems like Solana and Base for perpetual contract market share. Third, monthly unlocks are routine, and the selling pressure expected at the start of each month will continue to influence market sentiment.

> This article is based solely on objective publicly available information and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital currency trading carries high risks; please make independent judgments based on your own financial situation.
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