Geopolitical tensions suddenly escalate, with Iran shutting down communication channels with the U.S., leading to a rapid increase in market concerns over potential conflicts and a noticeable rise in risk aversion. Capital begins shifting from offensive to defensive positions, overall risk appetite declines, and market volatility intensifies accordingly.

The rapid rise in crude oil prices is essentially an early pricing of Middle Eastern supply uncertainties, with a clear emotional premium; meanwhile, gold and U.S. stocks weaken simultaneously, reflecting that during the initial phase of risk aversion, funds prefer holding cash and highly liquid assets, putting short-term pressure on gold. This misaligned movement precisely indicates that risk aversion is still in the fermentation stage rather than fully released.

As the situation continues to evolve, if market uncertainty persists and expands, capital is highly likely to gradually flow back into traditional safe-haven assets like gold. The risk-averse logic will shift from “liquidity priority” to “safety priority.”

Overall, the market has transitioned from a rhythm-driven trend to an emotion-driven one. Increased volatility and repeated directional swings have become the norm. In the context of rising risk aversion, blindly chasing trades is extremely risky. The key is to control positions and grasp the rhythm, seeking certainty opportunities amid uncertainty.
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