With the news of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, Asia-Pacific stock markets collectively celebrated, and global stock index futures also surged across the board. On the surface, this indicates a return to risk appetite, which is positive for cryptocurrencies, but caution is needed:

1. Capital flow diversion: The short-term surge in stock markets with higher policy certainty may divert some funds originally flowing into Bitcoin as a hedge against geopolitical risks;
2. Volatility suppression: The ceasefire reduces the likelihood of sudden event-driven market moves, and the "panic premium" relied upon by the crypto market may temporarily diminish;
3. Liquidity expectations: If global stock markets continue to recover, central bank tightening could accelerate beyond expectations, posing medium-term pressure on the crypto market that depends on an easy monetary environment.

Short-term bullish sentiment may lead to pulse-like gains (especially in resilient assets like BTC, ETH, SOL), but the sustainability is weaker than traditional stock markets; over the next two weeks, a trend of oscillation and divergence is more likely than a one-sided surge. The highlight will be using the rally to reduce high-leverage positions, and monitoring the correlation between US stock market openings and the crypto market for validation. #区块链##币圈# ​#Gate广场四月发帖挑战