The Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations have been postponed

On the macro level, this also exerts pressure on risk assets. Citigroup has delayed the Fed's rate cut expectations from June, July, and September to September, October, and December, respectively, expecting a total cut of 75 basis points, citing stronger-than-expected employment rebound and ongoing inflation risks. More aggressively, JPMorgan predicts that the Fed will not cut rates at all in 2026, with the next policy adjustment expected to be a 25 basis point hike in Q3 2027.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also stated at the March press conference that the projected rate cut in 2026 from the dot plot is not a certainty: "If inflation does not improve as expected, the rate cut will not happen." CME FedWatch Tool shows that the market's probability of a rate cut in December has fallen to just 8.1%. Ongoing conflicts in Iran continue to push energy prices higher, with international oil prices surging significantly, adding new upward pressure on inflation and further reducing the Fed's room to cut rates. The continuation of a high interest rate environment means that the liquidity improvement expectations for cryptocurrencies will be delayed. #Gate广场四月发帖挑战