#OilEdgesHigher

Crude is catching a bid again as geopolitical risk continues to reprice the energy market. After a brief pullback following the US-Iran ceasefire announcement, both Brent and WTI are edging back up — traders are not fully convinced the Strait of Hormuz situation is resolved, and they are right to stay cautious.

The core driver here is supply disruption risk. Military action in the Middle East back in late February effectively shut down flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and that single choke point handles roughly a fifth of global oil trade. Even with ceasefire headlines circulating, tanker traffic has not fully normalized — empty ships are not moving in and loaded ships are not moving out at pre-conflict volumes. Until that changes, the risk premium stays embedded in the price.

On the demand side, there is no major relief coming. Jet fuel and distillate prices surged through Q1 2026 as refinery inputs tightened, and downstream pressure is now showing up in airline ticket prices and cruise line costs. The broader consumer is starting to feel it.

Brent is seen holding in the $70 to $90 range near term according to energy analysts, with some forecasts already revised upward toward $96 if outages persist. WTI has been somewhat cushioned by strong US inventories and the possibility of a Strategic Petroleum Reserve release, which is limiting the upside differential between the two benchmarks.

The macro read here is straightforward — this is not a demand-driven rally, it is a fear premium. Which means it can unwind fast if diplomatic progress accelerates, but it can also spike hard if anything flares up again in the Gulf. Position accordingly.