#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 The Iran-U.S. ceasefire breaks down, geopolitical conflicts escalate, BTC scarcity narrative strengthens, mainstream coins fluctuate and battle, altcoins broadly weaken and fall back to gains

Fundamentals:
One, The Iran-U.S. ceasefire collapses, Middle East conflicts fully escalate, geopolitical panic reignites.
The two-week temporary ceasefire reached in the early morning of April 8th was declared broken on the same day. Israel ignores the agreement and conducts large-scale airstrikes in Lebanon.
Iran immediately retaliates: re-closes the Strait of Hormuz, shoots down Israeli drones, and suspends negotiations in Islamabad.
The U.S. response is vague, tacitly allowing Israeli actions, with Trump threatening to restart strikes.
The Middle East returns to the brink of full-scale conflict, risk aversion sentiment sharply rises, crude oil rebounds over 2.5%, gold surpasses $4,700, and crypto assets come under renewed pressure.
Two, The New York Times investigation: Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity points to a deceased cryptographer, whose 1.1 million BTC may remain permanently dormant, reinforcing BTC’s long-term scarcity narrative.
Three, In Q1 2026, 21 crypto projects shut down (mainly DeFi/wallets), accelerating bear market cleanup and industry concentration.
Four, The EU’s MiCA licenses are issued intensively in April, with a single license allowing passage across Europe, gradually releasing compliance dividends.
Technical:
BTC: The daily chart yesterday surged near 73K but, affected by the ceasefire breakdown, quickly retraced, closing with a small upper shadow. The current candlestick is in the middle-term downtrend channel (blue trendline), not breaking above the channel’s upper boundary, so the rebound is characterized as an oversold bounce rather than a trend reversal. The upper shadow indicates heavy selling pressure around 73K, with bulls’ counterattack hindered. Short-term moving averages (MA7/14) support a short-term upward move; but the price is under pressure from the MA90 and the lower boundary of the descending channel, indicating a clear short-term bullish and medium-term bearish pattern. Volume surged during yesterday’s rally but declined during the pullback, showing insufficient momentum and confirming that buying is driven by news short-term speculation without sustained large capital inflow. MACD is forming a bullish crossover below zero, with increasing positive bars, favoring short-term bulls, but the two lines remain near zero, so the rebound momentum has not yet turned into a trend. Going forward, the market will likely continue a rebound correction, watch for a break above 73K, with strong resistance near 74K; support below is at 69K, an important defensive line for the short-term bullish structure.
Intraday, focus on resistance at 71.5-72.5K, support at 69.5-68.5K.
ETH: Overall performance similar to BTC, but compared to BTC, yesterday’s rally did not reach new highs, with weaker rebound strength.
The daily chart shows a small bearish candle, with the upper 2300-2350 as the lower boundary of the descending channel and the strong resistance zone of MA90. Until it breaks through, it remains a weak rebound, with a complete medium-term downtrend. Short-term moving averages (MA7/14) are turning upward and diverging, with the candlestick testing support at the moving averages, so the short-term bullish structure remains intact; but the price is under pressure from MA90 and the blue descending trendline, limiting upward space. Volume during yesterday’s rebound was mildly higher but declined during the pullback, continuing the weak structure of “rebound with volume, correction with shrinking volume,” with cautious buying and insufficient bullish strength. MACD formed a bullish crossover below zero and is diverging upward, with positive bars maintained, indicating diminishing bearish momentum and a temporary bullish advantage, but the two lines remain near zero, so the medium-term downtrend persists. Going forward, the market will likely continue a rebound, with key resistance at the 2300-2350 descending channel lower boundary; support at 2130-2080, and as long as this range holds, the short-term rebound structure remains.
Intraday, focus on resistance at 2200-2230, support at 2140-2100.
Altcoins: Due to the ceasefire breakdown, escalation of Middle East conflict, and rising risk aversion, the altcoin sector broadly weakened, with yesterday’s decline roughly returning to the previous day’s gains.
Funds are rapidly concentrating into BTC/ETH, liquidity in altcoins has sharply shrunk, with no new capital entering, and rebounds lack support. DeFi hacking incidents triggered chain reactions of runs, putting second-tier public chains under pressure, creating a vicious cycle in the blockchain sector. Over 20 projects shut down in Q1, with no fundamental support for altcoins, valuations continue to fall, becoming abandoned by capital. No short-term rebound opportunities, continuing to decline; during market corrections, they will lead the plunge. Medium-term, deep de-bubbling, no structural opportunities, and capital grouping patterns persist.
Crypto market volatility is high; caution is advised when entering; these are personal views, not recommendations, for sharing only.