There’s another Chinese international student who made $400k directly on Polymarket in the past 30 days.

His method is basically Markov chains plus Claude as assistance.
And even if you only understand these things a little, you can still follow along and get a bit of the “soup.”
This stuff isn’t logically complicated; when you break it down, it boils down to five rules:
1. Markov property: No matter what you did in the past, the next step only depends on the state at this moment.
2. State space: List all possible situations that can appear in the system.
3. Transition probability: From state A to state B, how big is the probability that it happens.
4. Transition matrix: Turn the probabilities above into a table, and you can see the flow at a glance.
5. Steady state: After enough time, the system will get stuck at a stable equilibrium point.
If you understand these five rules, then in prediction markets your win rate on single trades can generally stay between 55% and 65%.
The Chinese guy I mentioned earlier is even tougher—his win rate hit 71%, and his book profit directly soared to $418k.
If you want to see the live trades, here’s his wallet address:
I’ll also toss in a few solid “hard formulas” I usually use for watching the market—save them and don’t lose them:
Markov state judgment:
· How RSI is calculated: RSI = 100 - (100 / (1 + RS))
· The RS in it is: the 14-day average gain / the 14-day average loss
· It’s simple to use: If RSI reaches above 70, consider selling; if it falls below 30, consider buying.
Moving-average state distribution:
· Simple Moving Average (SMA): Add up the closing prices of N days and divide by N.
· Exponential Moving Average (EMA): Today’s price × k + yesterday’s EMA × (1 - k), where k = 2 / (N + 1 ).
· Mnemonic: Buy when the fast line pierces above the slow line (golden cross); sell when the fast line plunges and pierces below the slow line (death cross).
Finally, use expected value (EV) for the calculations:
EV = ( win rate p × profit per win W) − ( loss rate q × loss per loss L)
I plugged this formula into my own trades from last week: win rate 66.3%, and final profit was 780, so it’s pretty decent.
On Polymarket, if you want to be lazy and just copy the assignment, my bot I usually use to watch the charts is pretty solid—if you want to save some effort, just click this:
#Polymarket